James Mishler thinks he knows where tabletop RPGs are going. So do a whole bunch of people. Nobody’s shy about holding forth on the One Truth. Or another One Truth. Whatever; there can only be one. The tabletop hobby will definitely collapse, or it will live forever. Everyone will definitely play MMORPGs instead, or switch to a virtual tabletop. Crap like that.
Unfortunately, roleplaying isn’t one thing. It isn’t a collection of practices with hard barriers between them, either. Thus, they will not live and die on one business model or hobby ethos, and companies that rely on this one-pointed focus are making a fat mistake. Roleplaying will survive. An industry that serves roleplayers will survive. This industry will include a few of the current players, but I think there will be a significant transformation that comes from new companies that really understand 21st Century media.
The only problem is that no company has yet proven that it really understands 21st Century media.
Several have made inroads, to be sure, but the one-pointed perspective – that it’s all about MMOs, or virtual tabletops, or an ailing pen and paper hobby – is a significant hindrance to understanding. People need to understand the following:
Modern Media Commodifies Attention Directly
Go over to Unclebear.com and scroll to the bottom of the page. No, all the way down. You’ll see a link exchange, one of the most primitive ways businesses attempt to increase their rankings on search engines. This is because research shows that about 90% of clickthroughs occur on the first page of search results. Traffic is the basic currency of the Web, and there are numerous grey-economy exchanges happening before any money shifts. In the past, attion was more strictly a means to an end. It took you to a product to buy. But nowadays marketing and advertising are so omnipresent that there are several layers of attention economics before any purchase takes place. The vast majority of Web activity happens in this “sea” of attention economics.
Don’t get distracted by Apps and iTunes and things. This is not where most of the action is. Yes, people buy apps – but more people use free email. f you have something of value, people pay attention, and that attention is valuable. If you can monetize that you’ll have a viable business. The App model can be relevant, but you must capture the customer with something valuable first. This is how a number of MMORPGs already work.
Progress Will Destroy Any Single-Point Model
Let me tell you something that will sound absurd: MMORPGs as we know them are on the way out. There are a number of reasons for this, but one of the primary ones is that user generated alternatives will eventually become sophisticated and easy to use to the point where you don’t need to play in somebody else’s sandbox. General technological improvements will constantly pressure MMORPG producers, but it’s not just about better graphics and such — it’s about more tools that let you make what you want without any special skills.
This is why selling a virtual tabletop is a bit of a fool’s game too; there are already ways to do it, and any commercial attempt will be in a race with free alternatives.
Segmentation is Inevitable
The single-point business model is also a bad idea because the Web has a long memory and promotes fragmentation into specialized interest groups. (See the huge diversity in pornography.) One silly thing in these discussions is referring to Games Workshop and its ability to “fire the fans” to keep focused on that sweet teendemographic, and its power to migrate fans to new rules sets and minis and things.
Listen: You can’t do that. You can’t make people stop playing versions of D&D and Vampire and anything else you don’t sell any more. You can’t “migrate” people away from things they like now. You can direct them to somewhere, but not away from it. When you try, they’ll resent you. This has always been true on a small scale, but now that people are able to make massive user-generated contribution that will stay online for years, it’s more important than ever. You need to be prepared for segments interested in every part of your IP, including stuff you stopped producing long ago.
It’s About Communities, Stupid: The Solution
Okay, so we can’t just say we’re going to go electronic and we can’t just turn out funky apps — at least not outside of specific parameters. What can we do? Form communities — and not just any communities. We have plenty of communities now that kind of suck. Companies need to become the focus for their fanbase and need to encourage open, tolerant participation. Here’s the attributes of a successful monetizeable community:
- Free: The community and associated games have a free tier that’s playable for an extended period of time. After that you can go with micropayments, expanded versions, whatever — but you need to get them in the door. The community should also feature regular support from designers and developers.
- Broad Devotion to the IP: Companies need to take (figurative) ownership of communities devoted to their properties. They need to be where you go first. There’s a real hunger for communities where people believe that the basis of belonging is not just common interest, but common enjoyment. Stop trying to move people away from the old flavour into the new. It’s not going to work very well. You don’t have to support the first edition of your game as robustly as new ones, but there should be a sense that you have an ongoing interest in every edition and manifestion of your game/IP. The Old School is an example of how it can go wrong. It’s a community that shares a sense of abandonment. Have an MMORPG? It should be rubbing shoulders with tabletop players.
- Active Support for User Content: Instead of just providing a way to get involved, highlight folks doing the work. Allow limited commercial participation on aspects of the game/IP that are more niche.
That’s what I think will work. Tabletop gaming isn’t going away any time soon, but it must be part of an integrated community.This not only strengthens it but brings it back into the fold for commercial exploitation. It will also be more useful for gamers, who badly need a way to organize that cuts through the crap.
That’s my opinion.
As a nerd and media professional, I agree with the broad strokes of your argument, but differ on a few points. I’m not sure your monetization scheme at the end of your post is really feasible (the micropayments component, at least).
On the other hand, seriously encouraging community building and user contribution are definitely vital. But I’m not sure that the RPG scene isn’t already pretty good at these things.
Similarly, I think most games already have a playable free tier and that is, quite frankly the level that most regular, non-core book owning, players operate on. If something catches their eye, they may pick it up, but really a good GM may actually be the best marketing many rpgs can get.
As an aside, I’m really unsure of your analysis of the MMORPG scene. I think the bloom is starting to come off of the web 2.0 rose. There is plenty of room in the market for smaller, user generated games and big-budget professional products.
I’m also pretty cynical about your assertion that “user generated alternatives will eventually become sophisticated and easy to use to the point where you don’t need to play in somebody else’s sandbox.” but that is neither here nor there.
I’m not sure your monetization scheme at the end of your post is really feasible (the micropayments component, at least).
Compared to an ad-driven subsidy maybe not, but micropayments are definitely mainstream. Honestly, this one was being nice to pro-micropayments adherents for diplomacy’s sake.
On the other hand, seriously encouraging community building and user contribution are definitely vital. But I’m not sure that the RPG scene isn’t already pretty good at these things.
The RPG scene is good at creating communities that tell you how whatever you’re doing is shitty, and spinning off into more and more specialized, impenetrable subsets. Screw those.
Similarly, I think most games already have a playable free tier and that is, quite frankly the level that most regular, non-core book owning, players operate on. If something catches their eye, they may pick it up, but really a good GM may actually be the best marketing many rpgs can get.
Good point! Tabletop gaming already resembles thisd model. I think the GM just can’t carry this for RPGs any more. There needs to be a welcoming, flexible community and play opportunities through it.
As an aside, I’m really unsure of your analysis of the MMORPG scene. I think the bloom is starting to come off of the web 2.0 rose. There is plenty of room in the market for smaller, user generated games and big-budget professional products.
Well, it was designed to be a bit of a shocker. I do agree with you provided that there be a social network backing big budget efforts up. Without that it’s hard to beat free or cheap alternatives.
I’m also pretty cynical about your assertion that “user generated alternatives will eventually become sophisticated and easy to use to the point where you don’t need to play in somebody else’s sandbox.” but that is neither here nor there.
Right now the dominant dumb idea in commercial game design is that players need rules from us, but not setting material, when the big experience from new roleplaying movements is the opposite. So you are right, after a fashion. It’s already possible to design a small scale low-rez MMO on Second Life with automated combat and creature spawning – but these often use mashups from other IPs.
Anyway, good response, and thanks for replying!
But forming communities is antithetical to my elitist dislike of other nerds!
Wisdom, thank you for posting this as it confirms that my intended business model is actually in line with the direction you see the market heading in. My current plans are collaborative by nature, modular and providing free versions of the corebook with all of the necessary content to play in an established setting. Aka, free players corebook with a few free settings. Value added, but enough free content that people can play the game freely. I am catering to that playable free tier rather then expecting them to the product in order to play effectively. I am additionally planning on strongly supporting user-generated content.
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I definitely agree with you when it comes to MMOs. The free to play ones become better by the day, and some of them have record numbers of players (I think free realms is up to 2 million now? Not certain on that but definitely over a million). Just look at Atlantica Online, or Runes of Magic, these are both MMOs that have a production quality high enough that gamers will at the least consider ones like them as a secondary MMO, which is a pretty major step.
It’s not just MMOs, too. Other forms of online gaming are heading that way. There’s numerous free to play FPS games out there, and in September a RPG/RTS hybrid, League of Legends, will be released. I’m in the beta for it, and I have to say it’s one of the most well polished, intuitive, and fun gaming experiences I’ve ever had. And it won’t cost me a dime unless I want it to. Microtransactions are a genius idea, and I can’t wait to see what comes out of it in the future.
That said, I still enjoy the pay by month MMOs as well, having just signed up again for EQ2. What really draws me to them, though, more than anything, is where my friends want to go playing. I’m more than willing to drop $15 a month on a game if it means quality play time with long distance friends, just as I’m willing to play the free ones in the same situation. In fact, I’ve mainly played free ones for the past year or two, due to my significant other liking those ones more than the ones that cost per month.
As for tabletop gaming, well, I’m not sure where I see that going. While one of my gaming groups has teched up to the point where I’m the odd one out who doesn’t have a laptop at the game, the other two I’m in still rely on hard copies for information and rules checking, and that tends to cost up front.
I admit that I am woefully out of date on the subject, but I remember when I first heard about d20 and the OGL, and I thought it was pretty impressive and neat. Fast forward to now, and Pathfinder releases today at 10 AM PST on Paizo. I’m going to be purchasing it, mainly due to how many good things I’ve heard about it from friends of mine who prefer 3.5 over 4e.
Anyways, I apologize for the length and ramblingness of this comment, but I wanted to say that at least for online computer gaming communities I feel you have hit the nail on the head. I’ve spent probably an average of 30-40 hours a week since 2005 taking part in the community for a Warcraft III mod called Defense of the Ancients, or DotA, and what kept me playing besides the enjoyment of the game was the community, the friends I made while playing, and the fact that the creator listened and responded to the community that built up around the game. If there had been a way for me to have made microtransactions or some sort of purchase for it, I would have done so in a heartbeat, many many times over those years.